The Big Picture 200 Minute DJIA: This is the DJIA 200 minute chart. I indicated a possible wave count going into this coming week. 
There are several different ways to count the current structure and, after spending some time studying the possibilities, I’m going with this count. I believe that wave (1) was complete early last week. Then the DJIA had a bounce wave (2). Therefore, I’m expecting that wave (3) of this structure is about to unfold. Under this interpretation, there is a little room for a pop on Monday, but a pop cannot exceed the highs on Friday.
The Big Picture 200 Minute DIA: This is the DJIA 200 minute chart. 
Last week GTM said: “I drew a trend line that connects as many noticeable “bottoms” since the rally from March 9, 2009…As you can see, the line was broken on Friday. This increases the possibility that the market trend has changed. In addition, one would like to see a price close below the line to also signify change. That occurred on Friday as well. Prices might try to hit the trend line from below it, but that is not as likely as prices are simply approaching the line then reversing lower.” The DIA did exactly that this week.
The Big Picture: DJIA: This is the DJIA 100 minute chart. I drew a trend line that connects as many noticeable “bottoms” since the rally from March 9, 2009. 
However, this trend line does not start from that exact bottom. I tried drawing several different angles of trend lines from the March low, but none of them seem to make sense in the big picture. When I draw trend lines, I like to find places where price hits the trend line the most. The trend line above has held significant value to the market over the past several months.
The Big Picture (with ETF: DIA): This is the DIA weekly. The rally from the March lows is labeled as an ABC zigzag (Elliott Wave Principle, p. 43). There is symmetry to this labeling because wave A virtually equals wave C. 
Wave A=24.24 points, and Wave C=25.09. This is a common pattern that emerges when labeling waves, and it gives the chart some continuity. Examine the volume. Since the bottom of wave B, the DIA has been progressing on lower volume. In fact, in the most recent weeks, volume has dived off. Many people, including the media, attribute the volume dip to the holidays. Although there may be lower volume during that time, that is not always the case. So, the shortfall in volume is NOT all about the holidays. It is about lack of interest in the market at these levels.
The Big Picture (with ETF: DIA):This is the DIA weekly. The rally from the March lows has been labeled as an ABC zigzag (Elliott Wave Principle, p. 43). There is symmetry to this labeling because wave A virtually equals wave C. Wave A=24.24 points, and Wave C=24.64. 
This is a common pattern that emerges when labeling waves, and it gives the chart some continuity. A piece of evidence that the market is near a top is that as DIA continues to trade a little higher, the fast and slow Stochastic fail to confirm that upward direction of the DIA. This is a noticeable negative divergence. Also, as the DIA is near the top, the RSI (14) is only reading 64.20 currently. A stronger reading of over 70 would be more advantageous to confirm the upward direction. For example, the highs of 2004 and 2007 had readings of over 70.
This Month's Elliott Wave Analysis
December 2009 Elliott Wave Analysis
