Elliott Wave Analysis

February 14, 2010

S&P 500 20 Minute: This is the S&P 500, 20 minute chart that captures the last month of trading—including the most recent bottom and the current countertrend rally. Grasp The Market S&P 500, 20 Minute Chart I’m considering the bottom that was reached on February 5 as the bottom of wave 1. Then, over the past 6 days of trading, the market has set off on a countertrend rally that has yet to reach the 38.2% retracement level. That is why I’m allowing for a bit of a pop early next week (although the pop is not a certain possibility) before the market begins wave 3 down as indicated by the arrow on the right side of the chart. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, “a count of 7, 11, or 15 with numerous overlaps is likely corrective” (pg. 55). The seventh division of this corrective pattern is underway, but once the lows of wave six as labeled above is cracked, the odds will increase that wave 3 down is underway. See the charts below for explanation of how I arrived at this conclusion.

S&P 500 120 Minute: Is this 2010 or 2008: The pattern shown above is remarkably similar to the pattern that is currently taking place in the market. Grasp The Market S&P 500, 120 Minute Chart However, this chart’s dates range from late spring 2008 to fall 2008. Notice that there was a large decline in the market, and then the market started a countertrend rally with seven overlapping waves. The trend lines that were drawn on both the RSI and the MACD slanted down, just like the current market condition. Therefore, the resemblance is hauntingly close to the current action in the market. See the chart below for the resolution of this wave structure.

The Resolution of the S&P 500 Chart from 2008: This shows the resolution of what occurred after the seven waves in 2008. Grasp The Market Resolution of the S&P 500 Chart from 2008 The line shows where the last chart left off. As you can see, the resolution was a dramatic move to the downside. Also notice, though, the increase in volatility in the market after the line. The market had large moves to both the upside and downside, but the trend direction was overwhelmingly down.

Russell 2000, 100 Minute Chart: This is the Russell 2000, 100 minute chart. Grasp The Market Russell 2000, 100 Minute Chart The chart shows potential waves 1 and 2 from the recent top. That means that wave 3 is next. If the Russell following the channel lines set by waves 1 and 2, and wave 3 is 1.61 times that of wave 1, then a potential stopping point will be slightly below 500. And if the channel lines hold up, the low for wave 3 would be approximately March 9-10. If you recall, this is the same day in 2009 when the market made its lows.

SLV 60 Minute: This is a chart of the ETF that represents silver (SLV). Grasp The Market ETF that Represents Silver Chart The chart shows a 60 minute time frame. SLV bounced off the trend line last week, and then it quickly resumed its downtrend. It appears that SLV has traced out waves 1 and 2 of wave three down. SLV even satisfied a 50 percent retracement of wave 1 of wave 3. Wave 3 should pull prices lower from here.

XLF Trend Line Support 100 Minute: Even though the XLF has bounced off a recent Grasp The Market XLF Trend Line Support 100 Minute low, during the bounce the volume has been drying up. This is contrary to the increasing volume during the break of the horizontal trend line. The horizontal line at approximately $14.08 will serve as formidable resistance because it was support for so long. Once the support was broken, then it became resistance. So far, this has been the case since the beginning of February.